Future chat group - Chapter 881

c871 “Inside” large organizations

If all influential people are bearish on a market, then it will definitely fall. What everyone is betting on is actually the magnitude of the decline, but due to risk control reasons, the volume cannot explode.

Only when there is a serious long-short divergence can the amount of energy have a chance to explode.

After the non-agricultural data comes out, long and short differences will appear, because the negative news is amplified.

The U.S. dollar index is now hovering a little above 99. Its strength is based on the fact that the market has digested all the negative fundamentals and technical aspects. When the non-agricultural data is slightly worse than expected, it will definitely break 99.

However, there must be huge differences between institutions, and even within large institutions. These differences are not enough to allow them to throw their chips into the complete market, but internal hedging can certainly be achieved.

Yanjing time, February 2, Friday.

“I want to increase my position!” When Lei Hao said these words, there was a moment of silence in the Yajin Investment board of directors, and then, almost everyone began to make small calculations.

“Lei, you should know that there is not much capacity in the market now.” As the executive director assigned by Keda to Yajin Investment, Rui’s eyes were firm, but there was a trace of confusion in his heart.

“Keda has it, HSBC has it, and Standard Chartered has it.” Focusing on several directors, Lei Hao showed a smile on his lips: “They can have it.”

“…” There was another period of silence in the conference room, and everyone remembered their ambition and purpose of coming to Yajintou.

In the financial circle, the risk exposure of large institutions is generally not too large, but the profitability of large institutions is very scary. This involves an operation method that is not so friendly to laymen.

For example, Keda has subsidiaries and funds holding shares all over the world.

What will happen when Fund A of Institution A is short on a certain target, while Fund B of Institution B is bullish on the same target, and Fund A of Institution A and Fund B of Institution B both have the shadow of Keda?

The answer is to take hedging positions, but then what? Investors in both funds are customers, so some customers make money and some lose money.

As a large institution like Keda, it not only earns handling fees, but its companies or funds that make profits can also publicize them. This is a take-all approach.

What’s interesting is that Company A’s Fund A and Company B’s Fund B are definitely under different regulatory layers. These are multinational financial institutions.

The specific implementation of this model is very complicated, but in general it is the operating method of appeal. In the end, suppressing news of losses and publicizing profit cases is what large institutions often do. However, the parent company earns a fixed proportion of the matching business. Handling fee.

As long as there is no overall loss, the brand will not fail. As long as the brand does not fail, large institutions will never fail. Investors have taken slightly excessive risks, but large institutions will definitely make money.

However, Fund A of Company A and Fund B of Company B are treated separately. They are all dedicated to operating funds for investors. I am indeed bearish or bullish on the market outlook, but it fails. What can I do? Who is always successful?

This has led to another phenomenon, which is the internal competition system of large institutions.

As long as it is a multinational financial group, there will be fierce internal competition. The directors of Asia Financial Investment are all from the Asia-Pacific faction. There are senior executives of Keda Asia-Pacific Branch and senior executives of HSBC Greater China. Anyway, they are the Asia-Pacific faction.

The Asia-Pacific faction, the European faction, and the North American faction are the three most powerful factions in the financial world. Among them, the Asia-Pacific faction is weak. The ambition of Rui and his group towards Asia Financial Investment is to seek better results and a higher status. .

So as soon as Lei Hao’s words came out, everyone understood in their hearts that this was an opportunity that everyone had expected.

Lei Hao’s foundation is in the Asia-Pacific, and he is naturally a collaborator of the Asia-Pacific faction. As long as he takes charge of Asia Financial Investment, which is inextricably related to large institutions, he will sooner or later come up with a similar plan: internal hedging.

The risk of throwing chips into the formal market is of course too high, but if two institutions with institutional holdings have cognitive differences with each other, what does it matter? It’s a good thing to have a subsidiary that’s making losses and an institution that’s making profits of the same magnitude at the same time, because you have the say.

only……

“Everyone knows very well that the North American economy has begun to pick up since the second half of last year. Although it was dragged down by the first half of the year and the annual report data was average, it will not have much impact on the non-agricultural data in January. Although the US dollar in the international market is under downward pressure, more Mostly it is to release the callback pressure from the previous rise.”

“In this case, the downside is limited.”

“North America is unlikely to counter-pressure the U.S. dollar index at this time. Normally, after the pressure is released, it is highly likely that it will rebound.”

“The original conclusion of the analysis was to estimate the support for the rebound and see if there is still a chance to come back.”

“At this point in time, we have increased our short-selling exposure and are taking greater risks.”

The board of directors of Yajin Investment is also a group of elites in the financial circle. Of course, everyone can see the current market situation.

The U.S. dollar index, or even any currency index, changes with the economic situation of the host country, but it will in turn affect the economic development of the host country.

In the second half of last year, or even the entire year, the North American economy bottomed out and rebounded, with obvious signs of recovery. Therefore, the U.S. dollar index has the intention of returning to the 100-point mark.

But looking at the overall situation, if North America is doing well, Europe and Asia-Pacific will be affected. It would be strange not to hold you back. Therefore, selling U.S. dollar assets also has this consideration.

January is the time when most capital forces seize the opportunity. They are not pessimistic about the U.S. economy, they just say that the current economic situation in North America is not worthy of the U.S. dollar index of 99. If you are 99, the money will go to your side. I still Have some fun.

Therefore, the decline is certain. It is obvious that everyone will unite with a tacit understanding to suppress Uncle Sam, but the decline cannot be too large, because the economic situation does not allow it, and the attitude of the United States is also very clear. They need to temporarily let the U.S. dollar strengthen for their own benefit. Inject some vitality into the hollow economy.

At this time, if Lei Hao still wants to continue selling short, the pressure will not be small.

“Looking at it purely from an economic perspective, this question is very simple, but finance is not just economics.” Lei Hao raised his finger and said: “It is precisely because of this that the market is full of variables.”

“…” Lei Hao’s words caused the directors to fall into silence.

Yes, qualified senior executives of financial institutions will certainly not analyze the direction of the financial market from an economic perspective only, but from ancient times to the present, only economic development is easier to analyze. Who can understand other things?

“Lei, stop playing tricks on us. You should know that we are a team.” Feeling the eyes of several colleagues focused on him, Rui was filled with helplessness and asked for advice: “Tell us your analysis conclusion. , we help you handle other things, yes, this is the reason why Yajin Investment was established and how it operates.”

“The Middle East, Japan, South Korea, South America, and Eastern Europe.” Lei Hao named a few regions and saw the eyes of the board members begin to light up.

“If you are optimistic about it, we can give it a try.” After a long time, the board of directors finally expressed its position.